Omar Suleiman, Egypt’s new Vice President and “former” head of Egypt’s secret service is NOT one to be taken lightly. And if you think I’m wrong, all you have to do is think about his invitation to the Moslem Brotherhood to participate in the negotiations to form a new government.
Here’s an inescapable reality:
For the better part of Suleiman’s public career, he has dedicated himself to fighting the Moslem Brotherhood. While at the same time, keeping a very close eye on Egyptian dissidents.
Suleiman is nobody’s fool. And for him to so publicly engage the Brotherhood has nothing whatsoever to do with giving them an opportunity to weasel their way into any form of power, which is not going to happen.
I have no information, other than what I personally believe to be true; and that is Suleiman has brought the Brotherhood into the Big Tent for one reason, and one reason only . . .
AND THAT IS TO SCARE THE HOLY CRAP OUT OF THE PEOPLE WHO ARE LEADING AND SUPPORTING THE DEMONSTRATIONS.
The organizers of the demonstrations are pretty much an educated, and by Arab standards, a relatively Secular group, and that’s why the Egyptian authorities are pretty much powerless to bring the demonstrations to a stop before they peter-out by fatigue.
But . . . if the demonstrations were managed by the Egyptian Brotherhood, they would have been crushed within the first 24 hours, or more likely never allowed to begin. The leaders would have been killed, or tortured and imprisoned.
But, because the mantra of the demonstrators was DEMOCRACY, and was in great part seen as a campaign by the middle-class, better educated, and family folk, the government could only do so much to stop it.
When the opportunistic El Baradei came forward as a leader wannabe with the support of the Moslem Brotherhood, you could feel the chill sweeping the demonstrators.
And this was not lost on Suleiman.
The last thing modern Egyptians want is a Theocracy vis a vis Iran. And even though Egypt does have a kind of Sharia, it is not a country governed by Sharia.
In fact, under Mubarak, Egyptians are in many ways far freer than their Arab neighbors. Egyptians have complete access to the Internet, education, travel, communications and a somewhat free press, as long as that press remains relatively neutral on government criticism.
But, in a country of more than 80 million people, where poverty and ignorance reign supreme, the possibility of a shift in government to the Moslem Brotherhood is a far greater nightmare to the people fighting for Democracy than a continuity of the current regime.
And what about the rest of the world, INCLUDING the Obama Administration who’ve jumped-on the CHANGE-NOW bandwagon? Do they want to see the Brotherhood running things in the Arab World’s most important country?
So, for Suleiman to welcome the Brotherhood into “serious” talks concerning the future of Egyptian politics and governance is nothing short of BRILLIANCE.
It’s easy for Western apologists, INCLUDING Obama to jump up and down like excited Chimpanzees in the zoo at the new action. But it is indeed an entirely different deal when it comes right down to who gets the bananas.
And that’s what people are beginning to realize as Suleiman drives the point home. Do the people demonstrating really want the Brotherhood to gain any toehold in the governance of Egypt?
Do the educated and “Secular” Egyptians want their rights defined through the Koran, or do they want to be governed by the Secular rules of man?
Do women want to live in a country where their rights are severely restricted? And what about Egypt’s Christians? Do they really want to trust their religious rights and freedoms to Islamo/Fascists?
And what about Middle East peace and security? What about Israel and the Camp David Peace Accords? Is the West ready to throw all that away?
It seems that after more than two weeks of demonstrating, as the demonstrators and the world at large start to think about the consequences of their “victory”, should they actually drive out the existing government; that wanted victory is not looking nearly as good as they thought it would.
For the first time since all of this began, I’m starting to feel good about where this Egyptian crisis is headed. It seems to me that the demonstrators will play themselves-out.
It also seems to me that there will be a step-by-step march to a limited form of Democracy, where the people will probably be allowed to become more engaged in the governance of their country, but more likely in their cities and provinces (governorates).
And in the final analysis; Suleiman, the likely new leader of Egypt, Egypt’s Generals, and other serious players will remember who in the West was with them, and who sided with those doing their best to overthrow their government.
It is also quite possible that the demonstrations will end in severe violence once Suleiman figures he’s had enough, or the people will simply tire and disperse when they realize that they will get nowhere, especially when the Egyptian people begin to return to the rhythm of normal life.
As a result of all of this, there will be substantial changes, but not as much in Egypt, as in the way Egyptian leaders will view the West, but specifically Obama.
I think this incident will probably strengthen the security bond between Egypt and Israel, since Israel was one of the very few countries that publicly supported the current Egyptian government, while Israelis at large, INCLUDING significant politicians denounced Obama for Obama’s words against the leaders of Egypt.
Or . . . I might be full of beans and Egypt will erupt into a full-blown revolution where everything comes apart at the seams.
JUST A NOTE ON THE O’REILLY/OBAMA SUPER BOWL INTERVIEW:
I didn’t see the interview, but did see snippets of it the day after on several of the FOX morning news shows, including a telephone interview with O’Reilly.
The statements made by FOX, including by O’Reilly . . . were:
1 – This was the most important interview ever.
2 – That the interview was seen all over the world.
3 – That O’Reilly thinks Bloggers are insane.
In my opinion about the interview and comments by FOX and O’Reilly:
1 – It was hardly the most important interview ever.
2 – Why didn’t O’Reilly say that it was seen all over the universe? Why stop just on Planet Earth as if the world waits on bated breath for whatever O’Reilly has to say?
3 – O’Reilly, who is very much part of the mainstream media regardless of what he says to the contrary, loves to demean Bloggers.
I figure he screws over Bloggers because he thinks the opinions of the “LITTLE” people are not worth the key strokes it takes to write them.
4 – But . . . the most surprising aspect of the interview . . . to me anyway, was how the White House and FOX were able to fit the egos of Obama and O’Reilly into the same room at the same time.
You got to love it when O’Reilly continues to refer to himself as a “SIMPLE man” or “your HUMBLE correspondent”. He is certainly simple when it comes to figuring-out his ego, and equally as humble as the man he just interviewed in the White House.
I just had to get that in.
Also . . . for my own ego, I have to mention that I chose the Cheese Heads to win by 7 points. They won by 6. This increases my average sports handicapping from 0%, to not much more than that. I’ll stay with the day job.
There is no audio editorial associated with this commentary.
Best Regards . . . Howard Galganov