The fact that Barack Obama had a much better showing than Hillary Clinton in Iowa only says to me that Barack Obama did a better job turning out the vote.
That the number of voters who turned out last night (January 3, 2008) was very high in terms of a Democrat Iowa Caucus and low for the Republicans really means nothing.
The “massive” importance of the Iowa Caucus is a figment of the media. Iowa is a Hick-Town State with zero relevance to the final Primary countdown for either Party.
That Huckabee cleaned house in Iowa is no big deal in the big picture. Being a small rural State, it goes to reason that a Baptist Minister who ran as a True Christian Candidate would do well amongst True Christian Electors.
What makes Iowa even more absurd in this political race, is the stupidity of their Caucus. The way they vote, and how they distribute their votes is so mixed-up and messed up, that it needs media explanations that are just as convoluted as the exercise itself.
It’s not as simple as one-person one vote and let’s move-on. Let me put Iowa into proper perspective:
Iowa is a State of roughly 3 million people. The next contest that will be wildly overblown in its importance will be the New Hampshire Primary. New Hampshire’s population is less than 1.5 million people.
Between New Hampshire and Iowa combined, there are fewer than 5 million people. Yet, to hear and read it from the political pundits, these two States are going to decide it all.
Here’s a reality check:
California has 36 million residents – 8 times the combined population of Iowa/New Hampshire.
Texas has 23 million residents – 5 times the combined population of Iowa/New Hampshire.
New York has 19 million residents – 4 times the combined population of Iowa/New Hampshire.
Out of 50 States, Iowa is 30th in terms of population, while New Hampshire is 40th.
Because of the media hype, Iowans and New Hampshire voters think far too much of themselves, as if their choice is the most important electoral factor in the entire Presidential political process.
Here’s a news flash for the media and the good folks of Iowa and New Hampshire. They’re political pipsqueaks who are not what and who they think they are.
Unlike Iowa and New Hampshire where the population is mostly white Christian true blood Americans, the big States are true melting pots where every issue under the sun is on the table and open for debate.
This is the first Presidential race that I am old enough to remember where the final decision will probably be made at the respective Conventions, where there is significant support for more than just two real candidates in each Party.
Romney is not going to throw in the towel. Giuliani is in it all the way. If Thompson isn’t broke, I don’t see why he will drop out. And for Huckabee, the big Iowa winner, don’t be too sure if he doesn’t get blown out before the Republican Convention.
It’s one thing to win in Iowa where being the Best Christian Candidate is important. But it is an entirely different deal trying to win in California, New York and the other big States where your faith is far less important than your platform and experience.
Like Dorothy said to Toto in the Wizard of Oz – I don’t think we’re in Kansas anymore.
As for Obama’s victory, he did a great job turning out his supporters, and he really does have a chance. But Hillary Clinton is still my favorite to win her nomination.
As for Edwards, he’s not out of it. He might just be the dark horse people will support because they can’t stomach Clinton or Obama.
If you really want to know who has what it takes to go all the way, wait for the Big States where issues matter more than personality.
As I’ve written in the past. My choice is Giuliani. He has everything a President needs to do the job. Not only would he be my choice if I was an American able to vote – he is in fact the best choice.
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