This past weekend was a disaster for the Americans in Iraq, with roadside bombings and the downing of a US Chinook helicopter, killing more US soldiers on this one weekend, than at any time since the day Bagdad fell.
My advice to the USA about Iraq was simple. Get in. Get rid of Saddam’s regime. And get out.
No country wants to be occupied, least of all an Arab/Islamic country with a unique culture that is totally anathema to Western values.
Just ask England, France and Italy; all of which took a shot at occupying countries in the Middle East and North Africa. They’re no longer there, are they?
The USA has gone one step too far. They can’t get out of Iraq without creating a huge mess for themselves, the Middle East and the West.
The world’s ONLY super power can not be driven out of an impoverished “third world” country by a hand-full of cultural and religious zealots figuratively fighting with “sticks and stones”.
But this is what is probably going to happen.
The Arab world, including the so-called Arab and Islamic friends of the USA can not allow any Arab/Islamic country to be ruled, even by proxy by the USA. And more than that: they can not allow any form of democracy to really take root in their neighborhood.
What does America do?
As I see it, the Americans have two choices. The first is to stay the course, continuing to send American soldiers home in body-bags while they attempt to build a democracy the entire Arab/Islamic world does not want, and will disappear the moment the Americans do.
The second choice is to set up a strongman, under the guise that he will establish law and order in the pursuit of “democracy”, declare victory, and then get the hell out!
The Arab and Islamic world will always be the Arab and Islamic world, steeped in intrigue, ignorance, age-old animosities and a society which will never accept the values of the West.
George W Bush would have done very well had he kicked the crap out of Saddam, told the rest of the Arab/Islamic world that they would be next if they continued to threaten the USA, and then brought the troops home.
Not only would he have been a hero to the Americans, he would also have delivered a message to America’s enemies that would have had no need of interpretation.
But now, America is involved in an Arabic cultural battle beyond their expertise, and beyond the patience of the American people. All the Iraqis and their allies need to do now, is to continue to pick-off American soldiers at random; one or two every day, and a tank or helicopter here or there.
The American people couldn’t give a rat’s-ass if the water is running or the electricity is turned on in Bagdad. They only want their troops back home, and the astronomical spending to rebuild a hostile Arab country to stop.
Frankly; I can’t blame them.
“WHEN” the USA pulls out of Iraq, it will be a bad day for the world in the context of the Middle East. No matter how the Americans leave, it will be construed by the Arabs and Islamists to be a HUGE victory against the USA.
Much like it was a huge victory for the Arabs when hundreds of Marines (peace keepers) were murdered and wounded at their barracks in Beirut in 1982. Much like it was a huge victory when the Black Hawk helicopter (on a humanitarian mission) was shot down in Somalia. Much like it was a huge victory when the USS Cole (resupplying at anchor in the harbor) was crippled in the waters off Yemen. All of which happened without significant American retaliation.
And then there was the culmination on 9/11.
Ask the Israelis what it means to pull their troops back from their Arab enemies.
The Israel’s could have, but didn’t slaughter the Egyptian Third Army which they had surrounded after rebounding from the sneak attack during the 1973 Yom Kippur War. Yet; the Egyptians claimed victory because they survived.
The Israelis pulled back from the Lebanese Security Zone, only to have the Arabs declare victory and take the battle to the Israelis within Israel.
Because the Israelis, through Prime Minister Ehud Barak, offered every concession possible to the Palestinians at Camp David during the Oslo “Peace” Accord, the Arabs took this as a sign of weakness and launched a TERRORIST War against Jewish Israeli civilians.
Even after the Iraqis were creamed in the 1991 Gulf War, Saddam Hussein declared a massive victory because he was still standing.
Any form of capitulation, even for humanitarian purposes is seen as weakness by the Arabs and Islamists, a weakness that is exploited to its fullest.
The Americans would do really well to find a way to declare victory and get the hell out of Iraq. But that doesn’t mean the Americans should leave “Dodge City” as they left Vietnam.
The Americans should leave with the very clear understanding that they will return if necessary. And if returning becomes necessary, it will NOT be to occupy and rebuild a country. To the contrary, it would be to destroy a country. This, the Arabs and Islamists would understand.
There is a simple solution to the global problems caused by the Arab Middle East and Islamists. The West must develop alternative energy resources. We must find better ways to conserve energy. And we should be pumping oil out of the ground from nations that are not run by savages.
If the West takes away the money, the West also takes away the fuel that drives the Arab/Islamic sickness that is infecting the world.
It’s a whole lot cheaper, simpler, instantaneous, and safer than what the Americans are doing now. And in the short-term and long-run, far more effective.