If Mahmoud Abbas (aka Abu Mazen), the new Palestinian Prime Minister appears to be heading for real peace with Israel, he will be killed. It’s as simple as that.
The men who have everything to lose if Israel and the Palestinians make peace won’t let it happen. With a real peace between Israel and the Palestinians there will no longer be a free rein for these bad actors to do their stuff.
Without a free rein, there will be actual expectations upon them to provide good governance.
It’s easy to always claim that poverty amongst the Palestinians is the fault of Israel. As is every thing else that is bad. But, with peace, REAL PEACE: who will the incompetents amongst the Palestinian Authority have to blame for their shortcomings?
What about the 40,000 Arafat gunmen, aka the Palestinian police? Will they simply lay down their weapons and find honest employment? Don’t bet on it. These guys like their guns and their bully-boy privileges.
What about the bloated Palestinian bureaucracy? Will they stop living high on the hog and subject themselves to accountability? Not likely. Jet-setting is quite addictive.
How about the fanatical religious idiots? Will they agree to live beside the Western Jewish Infidels? Only if they want to lose whatever influence they have on the people who are presently cowed into buying their religious dogma.
And let’s not forget about the close to four million Palestinians languishing in these so-called refugee camps. They won’t accept a peace deal that doesn’t give them a “right of return” to what is now Israel.
Remember, it’s now three generations of Palestinians from the “camps” who have been fed a constant diet of Jew and Israel hating, with the promise that one day “soon”, they could go back to their former homes and the homes of their ancestors in pre 1967 Israel, to claim what they gave up in 1948.
Israel will NEVER agree to give these Palestinians a “right of return”. If Israel did, it would be the same as committing national suicide.
Just because the Americans kicked the crap out of the Iraqis, and are scaring the Syrians, the Iranians and just about everyone else in the Middle East, it changes nothing. It only makes the Western haters, thugs and religious fanatics more careful.
The Middle Eastern Arabs still hate Israel, Jews, the West and specifically America with the same, if not greater vehemence as they did before the Iraqis caved like a house built of cards. Nothing in this light has changed.
Then there is Yasser Arafat.
Arafat created the modern day Palestinians. He guided them into the misery they presently find themselves. And he revels in the power. He is not going to give any of this up without a fight.
Being the boss of the Palestinians has made Arafat a very rich and famous guy. He likes it.
We will know that Mahmoud Abbas is serious when either he is killed, or Arafat is killed or driven out of the Palestinian territories.
For Abbas to honor his commitment to the Rad Map, it will require his commitment to fight a civil war against all of the enemies who have too much to lose if peace ever becomes a reality between the Palestinians and the Israelis.
That’s when we will know. And even then, there will always be enormous pressures upon whomever leads the Palestinian people. There will always be those who have the capacity to undo whatever peace treaty is done. And peace at best will probably mean only fewer Jewish murder victims at the hands of Arab terrorists.
In the meantime, Israel should continue upon the path to peace, understanding that this most current path is no less perilous than the previous one called Oslo.
I trust the Middle Eastern Arabs to always be true to form, culture and nature. And even though everything looks pretty promising today, Israel should continue to build the wall. This is a worn path already traveled far too many times.